Where the rate of increase (of population growth) is increasing.
2) Describe the world’s population growth
Between AD 1 and AD 1000 population growth was slow, but the population grew especially quickly during the late 20th and early 21st century. Between 2006 and 2007, the world’s population increased by 211,090 people each day. Growth is predicted to continue, but the rate is slowing down. The population is likely to rise to 9.2 billion by 2050 and peak in 2150 at 10 billion. This should then be followed by a period of zero growth or even natural decrease.
3) What does a J-curve graph show? What does an S-curve graph show? (On a global population growth graph)
A J-curve graph shows exponential growth. An S-curve graph shows that population growth rates are starting to slow down.
4) What is Natural Change and How is it Calculated?
Natural change is the difference between birth and death rates in a country, and shows whether a country’s population is growing or declining. It’s calculated as: (BR/DR)/10
5) Tell me about Death Rates? (Typical and how affected)
All countries now have low death rates. They typically lie between 5 per 1000 and 20 per 1000 (except during epidemics, famine or war) Death rates can be decreased by health care improving, or by having a large population under 15. So, the DRs of some more developed countries are higher, because their populations are older.
6) Tell me about Birth Rates?
Today, birth rates vary between 5 per 1000 and 40 per 1000, due to the availability of birth control. Birth rate is a better indicator, as although family size has reduced in most less developed countries, parents in wealthier countries have even fewer children.
7) Why are Birth Rates and Death Rates out of 1000?
It allows figures for different sized countries to be compared.
8) What is the Difference between Natural Increase and Natural Decrease?
Natural increase is where the birth rate exceeds the death rate, so the population increases. In contrast, natural decrease is where the death rate exceeds the birth rate, so the population decreases.
9) How does Agricultural Change affect Population Growth?
Technology improves yields and reduces labour needed, so smaller families become more desireable. This frees workers for industry, so there is more rapid economic growth.
10) How does Urbanisation affect Population Growth?
Rural-to-urban migration is common in poorer countries as cities do or are believed to have greater opportunities. One major reason is to seek better opportunities for children. Therefore, using children for labour is of less value in cities, so people have less children.
11) How does Education affect Population Growth?
As levels of academic education increase, standard of living increases (higher pay) so children become an economic disadvantage. Fewer children means that more money can be spent on each one, so they each have better futures.
11) How does Emancipation of Women affect Population Growth?
As economies develop and education improves, opportunities increase for girls alongside those for boys. Reaching a good standard of living in a household requires two incomes, so women participate more in paid work outside the house. Over time, prejudices against women decrease and equality increases and is seen as desirable. (Countries like Sweden have changed the law in increase the proportions of women in management and government.) However, achieving highly in any career requires a large time commitment, leaving less opportunity for taking maternity leave or caring for children. Some women choose not to have children or have them later, and this increases as the economy develops. This means that larger families, or having a family at all might be rejected. Many women in developed countries work, which requires expensive childcare. Many women do not reach their maximum potential in work because they feel bringing up children is more important. Today 1 in 5 women don’t have children, compared with 1 in 10 in their mothers’ generation.
The Demographic Transition Model
1) Tell me about the Demographic Transition Model
The DTM explains patterns of birth and death rates across the world through time. Stage 1 is the least developed. Stage 5 is the most developed. Stage 5 was added later due to more recent changes in Europe.
2) What are the Characteristics of Stage 1?
A high birth rate. A high death rate. Both fluctuation because of disease, famine, war &c. Fairly stable population. Little medicine, low life expectancy and no birth control. Only happens today in remote areas of Amazonia and Indonesia, traditional societies largely cut off from the world. The UK pre-1760
3) What are the Characteristics of Stage 2?
Death rate decreases due to improvements in medicine and hygiene. Life expectancy increases. Birth rate remains high, possibly a slight increase as less mothers die in childbirth, so can have more children. Population grows. (On the graph, the farther apart the lines are, the greater the rate of growth. Mainly agricultural economies (where children are needed to work on the land), so birth rate remains high. Afghanistan today, UK 1760-1880.
4) What are the Characteristics of Stage 3?
Death rate falls more slowly. Birth rate drops rapidly, due to available birth control and economic changes (beneficial to have a smaller family - children cost as they have to go to school and can’t work). Population still grow, but not as fast. Brazil, India, Kenya &c today. UK 1880-1940.
5) What are the Characteristics of Stage 4?
Low birth rate. Low death rate. Birth rate tends to fluctuate depending on economic situation - jobs and earning a good living make people more likely to have children - with unemployment and low wages people tend to postpone having a family until later. Overall, slow population growth. UK, USA, France now. Countries at Stage 4 are the most sustainable.
6) What are the Characteristics of Stage 5?
Very low birth rate, goes below the death rate. Death rate has increased slightly due to ageing population. Total population begins to decrease. Many eastern countries like Lithuania (uncertain economy) and some western countries like Germany (emancipated women) are at this Stage.
7) Give an Example of a Stage 1 Place
The closest situation to true Stage 1 is traditional rainforest tribes, where small numbers of people live with little contact to the outside world.
8) Give an Example of a Stage 2 Country
Afghanistan is very poor, held back by political instability. It has one of the highest birth rates of 46.2 and a death rate of 20.0, so a natural increase of 2.62. About 79% of people are farmers, often nomadic, so need children to help with crops and livestock. Cities like Kabul (capital) have higher rates of NI, because there is easier access to medical care, while young adults migrating to the city increase birth rate.
9) Give an Example of a Stage 3 Country
Although at Stage 3, Brazil is an NIC, so developing fast economically. The population almost doubled (108 million to 208 million) between 1975 and 2015. It’s Roman Catholic, so has a high birth rate, but but improving standards of living mean that people are seeing the benefits of having fewer children.
10) Give an Example of a Stage 4 Country
The USA has the largest and most developed economy in the world, and the third largest population (326 million people in 2017) and it has high growth for its stage due to immigration. Many immigrants come from Catholic Central America, but the USA is now encouraging a highly trained Asian workforce, who are likely to have lower birth rates.
11) Give an Example of a Stage 5 Country
Germany is almost as well developed as the USA, but at a different stage of development as women are achieving high-powered positions at work, and there is an ageing population. The birth rate is well below replacement rate, so the government has to cope with a large elderly population and a declining workforce.
12) What are the Problems with the Demographic Transition Model?
It’s Eurocentric - based on how European countries progressed. It does not include impacts of migration. It doesn’t give a timescale.
Population Pyramids
1) What is a Population Pyramid?
A population pyramid is a type of bar graph used to show age or gender structure of a country, city or other area. The horizontal axis gives amounts or percentages of the population. The vertical axis shows age categories, e.g. every 5 years. The lower part is called the base and shows the younger section. The upper part is called the apex and shows the more elderly section. It can be used to find the birth rate, life expectancy, level of economic development or stage in the DTM.
2) Describe the Population Pyramid for a Country at Stage 1
Very wide base due to a very high birth rate. Sides narrow quickly due to a high infant and child mortality rates (50% reach 5th birthday) and high death rate. Very narrow apex, with few elderly people showing a short life expectancy. (E.g. remote parts of Amazonia and Indonesia)
3) Describe the Population Pyramid for a Country at Stage 2
Base a little narrower. Sides less concave as birth rate drops. Thicker apex as there are a few more elderly people in society. E.g. Afghanistan in 2000.
4) Describe the Population Pyramid for a Country at Stage 3
Straighter sides as more people live into old age due to healthcare improvements. Narrowing base as birth rate decreases quickly. E.g., Bangladesh in 2000.
5) Describe the Population Pyramid for a Country at Stage 4
Birth rate reducing causing concave shape. Thicker apex, most people die in old age, high life expectancy, most live into their 60s and 70s. Much more straight sided. E.g. USA in 2000.
6) Describe the Population Pyramid for a Country at Stage 5
Increasing proportions in the very elderly group. Middle-aged generations larger than those of children due to low birth rate. Not sustainable - when current population become elderly not enough adults to support them. E.g. Germany in 2000.
7) Give Differences between Rural and Urban Population Pyramids
Urban areas of countries at lesser stages of development are mainly male in the 60-64 age group. Usually, more boys are born than girls, explaining the differences at the base. Rural-to-urban migration remains common in countries at lesser stages of development. Men and older boys leave the women, younger children and elderly behind in rural areas. Cities offer greater opportunities to earn money, which can be sent back to improve the family's standard of living. Sometimes whole families make the migration.
8) Describe India’s Current and Future Population Pyramids
Currently, although India’s birth rate has fallen, the base remains wide because there are so many adults in child-bearing years. By 2025, the number of babies born per year will have stabilised, and increasing numbers will live into old age. By 2050 the birth rate will have reduced slightly, and most people will be in their 70s, giving India the characteristics of a Stage 4 population.
One Child Policy
1) When was the One Child Policy Introduced?
1979
2) Why was the One Child Policy Introduced?
Changes to an industrial economy caused a famine from 1959-61, with 35 million deaths. Couples were encouraged to have large families to repopulate the country. A baby boom followed, and the population was growing unsustainably fast. In the early 1970s, the government realised the country was heading for a famine unless severe changes were made quickly. Also, the increasing population meant that there were limited resources, such as food, housing, education and healthcare, which led to a low quality of life. A lack of resources like jobs meant that there were many poorer people who could not afford to pay taxes, and the government needed more money to create facilities for the large population.
3) What were the Terms of the Policy?
Couples must not marry until their late 20s. They must only have one successful pregnancy. One of them must be sterilised after the first child or abort any future pregnancies. They would receive a 5-10% salary rise for limiting their family to only one child.
4) What were the Punishments for Disobeying? (4)
A 10% salary cut. A fine so large it would bankrupt most households. The family would have to pay for the education of both children and health care for all the family. Second children born abroad were not penalised, but were not allowed to become Chinese citizens.
5) What were the Problems with the Policy? (6)
Women were forced to have abortions - even as late as the 9th month of pregnancy! Women were placed under enormous pressure from their families, workmates, the ‘Granny Police’ and their own consciences and feelings. Local officials and the central government had power over people’s private lives. Chinese society had a preference for sons over daughters, which resulted in female infanticide and girls being placed in orphanages. The ‘little emperor’ syndrome, where only children were often spoilt. Gender imbalance where there were more than 30 million more young men than women.
6) What were the Benefits of the Policy? (4)
The famine which was previously forecast has not occurred. Population growth has decreased significantly (by more than 10%) for people to have enough food and jobs. It’s estimated that 400 million fewer people have been born. New industries have lifted millions out of poverty, although technology from other countries has helped to do this.
7) What were the Exceptions to the Policy?
Rural families were allowed to have two children if their first was a girl. Minority ethnic groups were exempt as they would have become unsustainable under the One Child Policy. If a parent was an only child then they were allowed to have two children. (except for government workers) In 2007, 39% of the population were subject to a strict one child restriction.
8) What Changes did the Policy Bring About? (5)
With less time needed for childcare, women have had to opportunity to concentrate on careers, so have achieved more. With increasing wealth, people were able to break the rules, pay the fine and take the other consequences of having a second child. The attitudes to having a daughter and quality of life for women has improved. Some girls have been rejected, so now there are over 30 million more young men than women. Not all men will be able to marry, which will present difficulties for Chinese society. Some studies have indicated that the policy only had a minimal effect on the population, and that the rapid economic development may have caused a bigger change. Countries like Thailand have had the same result without a One Child Policy.
9) What Happened on the 1st January 2016?
On the 1st January 2016, the policy was abolished and replaced with a two child policy, however couples still have to gain permission to have a second child.
Kerala
1) When was the Programme Introduced?
1952
2) What did the Programme Include?
It included both contraception and social changes, which the socialist government has focused on to create a society that encourages smaller families. Land was redistributed so no one was landless. No family was allowed more than 8 ha, and everyone could be self-sufficient. This meant that bigger families would be at a disadvantage.
3) What were the Features of the Programme? (10)
Improving education standards and treating girls as equal to boys. Providing adult literacy classes in towns and villages. Educating people to understand the benefits of smaller families. Reducing infant mortality so people no longer need to have so many children. Improving child health through vaccination programmes. Providing free contraception and advice. Encouraging marriage at a higher age. Allowing maternity leave for the first two babies only. Providing extra retirement benefits for those with smaller families. Following a land reform programme, making having a large family a disadvantage.
4) How Populated is Kerala?
Kerala’s 34 million people make up 3.4% of the population. The population density of 819 people per km squared is 3x the Indian average.
5) What Effects has the Programme had? (4)
It has India’s lowest growth rate. It is one of the few developing regions in the world to have reached Stage 4 in the DTM, and it has social and demographic statistics closer to those found in Europe and North America. It’s GDP per capita is low ($8,173) compared with richer countries, but high against the Indian average of $1,672. It has the highest adult literacy rate in India, 94%, compared with the Indian average of 74%.
Ageing Populations
1) Why are some Richer Countries Ageing Populations?
Better health care and more advanced medicine allows people to live longer, increasing the proportions of elderly people. The very elderly, 85+ age group is growing fastest, putting particular stress on health and social welfare systems. A low birth rate due to emancipation of women, contraception, technology &c...
2) Why is Healthcare an Issue for Ageing Populations? (5)
The demand for and cost of healthcare increases as more illness occurs in old age - compression of morbidity is where health costs are compressed into the last years or months of life. They visit their GP more often. They spend more time in hospitals and have more appointments. The government has to find funding to support older people and this comes from taxing current workers. Strain is put on healthcare resources.
3) Why are Social Services an Issue for Ageing Populations?
Elderly people need other services such as nursing homes, day-care centres and people to help them care for themselves at home. These special needs put financial pressure on a country.
4) Why are Pensions an Issue for Ageing Populations?
In wealthier, more developed countries, people are expected to retire from work and have a pension for the rest of their lives. As there are more elderly people, the proportion of working people decreases, so taxes must increase to pay the pensions bill. The UK state pension began in 1908 when the male life expectancy was 67, and the retirement age was 65, so the average person would receive a pension for only two years. Today, state pensions still start at 65, but the life expectancy is 81 (2012).
5) What are the Opportunities for Ageing Populations? (5)
Younger retired people in their later 60s and 70s contribute a lot to the economy as they are relatively wealthy and have a lot of leisure time. They spend money on travel and recreation, providing jobs in the service sector. Many do voluntary work, and some still do paid work, therefore paying taxes. The power of the ‘grey vote’ is of great significance to political parties. The ‘grey pound’.
6) Give examples of industries/companies that benefit from the ‘grey pound’
The tourist industry, e.g. cruises. SAGA holidays provide a wide range of holidays and leisure activities. Companies such as Homebase and B&Q employ this age group. Support services such as ‘meals on wheels’, health visitors, home help, cleaners &c.
7) Tell me about Ageing in the UK (7)
It is predicted that the proportion population aged 65+ will have doubled by 2050. Live expectancy for people retiring now is 81 for men and 84 for women, and American researchers predict that people alive today will reach 150. In 2011, 1 in 6 people were aged over 65. There were 430,000 people aged 90 and over in 2001, compared with 340,000 in 2001 and 13,000 in 1911. More older people are giving up smoking than any other age group. The number of pensioner deaths from heart disease has fallen by ⅓ in the last 10 years. More elderly are having breast cancer screenings and ‘flu jabs.
8) What are some Options for helping with the Pensions Crisis?
Pensioners becoming poorer compared with the rest of society. Tax and national insurance premiums devoted to pensions increase. Average retirement age increase. Increase the rate at which individuals save for retirement.
9) Tell me about Ageing in the EU
Birth rates in the EU are very low and may decrease even more, in 2003 1.5 babies were born for every woman, but 2.1 are needed for the population to become sustainable. Smaller families and later motherhood mean that in each generation there are fewer parents, so fewer children are born. Western European birth rates are higher than those in Eastern Europe, but Germany has the lowest birth rate in the EU.
Le Code de la Famille
1) What is France’s Policy called, and why and when was it Introduced?
It is commonly called ‘code de la famille’. It was introduced in 1952. It was introduced to encourage the repopulation of France after WW2, and to create a more favourable age structure and dependency ratio.
2) What are the Incentives of the Policy?
Three years of paid parental leave, which can be used by mothers or fathers. Full time schooling starts at the age of three, fully paid for by the government. Day care for children younger than three is subsidised by the government. The more children a woman has, the earlier she will be able to retire on a full pension.
Migration
1) What are push-pull factors?
Push factors are negative factors that ‘push’ one away from one’s home, whereas pull factors are positive aspects of a new place that attract people to move there.
2) What are the Impacts of International Migration? (7)
Migrant workers often send money back to their country of origin to help their families. This is a disadvantage to the host country, as money leaves the economy, but the country of origin can benefit enormously. Finding accommodation can be difficult for migrants in the UK, so social services have helped which causes resentment from UK citizens who feel they are being treated as second-class citizens in their own country. Demand for housing has grown immensely in the UK during the early 21st century, and this is greater than supply. The quickly rising property prices in the early 2000s were partially fueled by immigration. Migration brings labour and skills, which has caused the economies of the UK and the EU. Exploitation of migrants by negligent gang masters does happen, for example the death of 23 Chinese cockle pickers in Morecambe Bay in February 2004. Schools taking immigrant children may be under pressure, and British parents may feel that their children’s opportunities have been reduced as teachers focus on those whose first language is not English. Cultural mixing is often seen as positive as long as racial discrimination does not become a problem.
3) The UK received 600,000 Eastern European migrants from 2004-2006, the largest group Polish. Give Benefits and Disadvantages of Migrants from the EU
Most migrants have found formal jobs that are much better paid than those they would receive at home. (Poles on average receive 5x as much as they would at home, while the cost of living in the UK is only 2x as much as Poland.) Most migrants pay tax, which contributes to the UK economy. However, some work in the informal economy and they use the UK’s health and education service. Many workers are temporary, returning home from the UK as opportunities in Poland increase. Overall, the UK’s economy has benefitted from migrants.
4) Tell me about immigration from elsewhere to the EU
Europe currently receives 2 million immigrants from beyond its borders each year, more than any other region. Europe’s ratio between the current population and immigrants is higher than the USA’s. The EU’s population is changing more in age and racial structure from immigration than through changes in birth and death rate. About 8.6% of the EU are foreign born, compared with 10.3% of the USA and almost 25% of Australia.
5) Explain Labour Immigration
Cheaper travel and more information attract skilled and unskilled labourers to Europe. The UN predicts that immigration to the EU will rise by 40% in the next 40 years. Europe needs immigrants because of its falling birth rates and the resulting lack of workers. Highly skilled workers often come to the EU to take temporary jobs in areas of shortage such as teaching, nursing, and high-tech computer jobs. About 20% are graduates.
6) Give an Example of International Labour Migration
Patterns of immigration from Senegal to Italy are well established. People, mainly male from their teens to 40s leave. Those that return bring enough money to build a house. Money is spent home to support children, but these children suffer without their fathers at home. The dry climate in Senegal limits subsistence farming. Funds sent home to the village of Beud Forage have helped to set up set up water and electricity supplies, but houses left by emigrants lie empty and unemployment is high. There is little to attract migrants to return.
7) What is the Difference between Refugees and Asylum Seekers?
Refugees intend to return to their home country, whereas asylum seekers intend to stay in the new country.
8) What fraction of immigrants to the EU claim to be asylum seekers? What problems are there with this?
One third of immigrants to the EU claim to be asylum seekers. However, some economic migrants have claimed to be asylum seekers, believing it would give them a better chance of staying in the EU. This has created strong feelings against genuine asylum seekers.
9) Give Examples of Refugee Movement into the EU?
The 1990s Bosnian war created hundreds of thousands of refugees to the EU. Germany alone took 400,000, many of which returned home once the situation was peaceful. Today the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan provide the most asylum claims. Sweden is particularly generous to asylum seekers, in 2007 70,000 Iraqis already lived there, half of those coming to the EU. The Netherlands, Greece, Belgium and the UK have given home to all the rest. Asylum requests to EU countries almost doubles from 2006 to 2007. (19,000-> 38,000)
Kindertransport
1) Why was Kindertransport Created?
During the build up to WW2 many refugees left their homes in Germany, Austria and Czechoslovakia, usually due to their views or religion, so that they would not be imprisoned or killed. However, many people like children were not able to emigrate for example, due to a lack of money or transport, or the time it took to acquire the necessary documents. The Home Secretary Sir Samuel Hoare decided to speed up the process by creating travel documents for groups rather than individuals.
2) What was Kindertransport?
Kindertransport is the name for the collective ways in which all the refugee children left their home country. After an appeal to Parliament, and funding from groups such as charities (so the children wouldn’t be a burthen on the public) the first Kindertransport departed on 1st December 1938, and ran until 1939. The majority of the children were Jewish, and homeless or orphaned children were prioritised as they had no-one to protect or support them. The children were refugees not asylum seekers as they were meant to return home after the war, however many stayed, for example if their parents were killed in concentration camps.